A scale is not a crystal ball
Human randomized trial · Published July 2, 2015
What did the weight-management trial actually measure?
Subject One steps onto a museum scale wearing his coat, backpack and considerable expectations. Doctide points him toward the study desk. “The scale is an exhibit. The results belong to the participants.” He puts his notebook on the desk instead.
What changes here
Liraglutide improved average weight loss versus placebo; averages do not predict one person’s result. [1]
Read the study details & dates
A scale is not a crystal ball
NCT01272219: reported 56-week double-blind human trial, 3,731 adults without type 2 diabetes; BMI ≥30, or ≥27 with hypertension or dyslipidemia. Subcutaneous liraglutide versus placebo, both with lifestyle counseling. Mean losses were 8.4 versus 2.8 kg; difference −5.6 kg (95% CI −6.0 to −5.1), using last-observation-carried-forward imputation. Serious events occurred in 6.2% versus 5.0%. [1] [2] [3]
What this does not establish
Imputed missing observations and a defined population limit interpretation. Novo Nordisk funded the study. This is not a comparison with newer medicines.
Original sources
- Pi-Sunyer et al., NEJM, July 2, 2015 — original abstract
- Pi-Sunyer et al., NEJM — published safety section
- FDA 2014 Saxenda summary review — development-program mortality assessment
Reviewed November 10, 2026. Original abstract, publisher-indexed safety section and FDA review excerpt; full trial supplement not reviewed.
Subject One is fictional. Separate studies, species and populations are not a single patient’s experience. How to read the story